THE VIRGINIA REPORT: WARNER OUT OF THE GATE FAST AND CLEAN; GILMORE READY TO GET MEAN, AND DAVIS NOT TRUSTED BY HIS OWN TEAM.
VIRGINIA: Poll gives Mark Warner wide lead in Senate raceDelmarva Daily Times - MD,USA"I pretty much always voted Republican, but I would vote for Mark Warner," said Jimmy Wetzel, 64, of Shenandoah. "I think on some things, Mark Warner is ...See all stories on this topic
Mark Warner Senate bid raises more than $1 million in two weeksDaily Press - Newport News,VA,USAMark Warner has no Democratic opponent. Republicans on Saturday voted to choose their nominee next June in a statewide convention. Former Gov. See all stories on this topic
GOP Convention Favors GilmoreWSLS.com - Roanoke,VA,USAWhoever wins, they'll face Democrat Mark Warner. He's already running with appearances last week in Roanoke . And in his first two weeks as a declared ...See all stories on this topic
Senate money flows inThe Hill - Washington,DC,USAMark Warner (D) raised $1.1 million in the third quarter, bringing him into a virtual cash tie with Rep. Tom Davis (R) after less than three weeks of ...See all stories on this topic
Washington Post PollWashington Post - United StatesMark Warner 67 19 15 b. Jim Gilmore 40 33 27 c. Tom Davis 28 18 54 12. Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a ...See all stories on this topic
Swing State ProjectSwing State Project - New York,USAMark Warner, in a general election. Many on this site and others know that I truly believe that Tom Davis can compete with Warner and keep the race See all stories on this topic
Post Poll: Mark Warner Riding High Into '08Express from The Washington Post - Washington,DC,USAIn the race to fill the seat of retiring US Senator John Warner, a Republican, popular Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner, no relation, has a wide 30-point ...See all stories on this topic
Democrats stop in Roanoke to tout 4 House candidatesRoanoke Times - Roanoke,VA,USAMark Warner and Democratic caucus leader Del. Brian Moran, D-Alexandria, swung through Roanoke on Thursday to raise money for the homestretch of 11 hotly ...See all stories on this topic
Mark Warner's back on the campaign trail in western VirginiaWDBJ7.com - Roanoke,VA,USAFormer Governor Mark Warner is back on the campaign trail, stumping for Democratic candidates in the fall elections and laying the ground work for his own ...See all stories on this topic
As Virginia Republican leaders gather this weekend to decide whether to hold a convention or primary to select their nominee for the U.S. Senate, no one will be following the outcome closer than U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.).
For Davis, the leaders' decision could help determine whether he will enter the nominating contest that will determine which Republican takes on former governor Mark R. Warner (D) in the general election.
Throughout the summer, much of the focus was on the options Warner had as he considered whether to run for the Senate next year or governor in 2009. But Davis, who is widely regarded as a moderate Republican, also has options that require lots of decisions over the coming weeks.
The first is whether to run for Senate, depending on what happens Saturday. The committee vote will shape the GOP contest for the Senate nomination in the spring.
In a convention, several thousand GOP activists, many driven by their opposition to abortion rights, pack a location to choose the party's nominee. But in a primary, any Virginian could vote.
Davis has been working hard to secure a primary, which he argues would give the eventual GOP candidate time to build familiarity with voters.
Some conservatives, including former governor James S. Gilmore III (R), are advocating a convention. Gilmore, who is also pondering a bid for the Senate, says that a convention would cost each candidate about $1.million, compared with the $4.million that might have to be spent to win a primary.
And that $3.million saved, Gilmore argues, could be better used in a general election against the sure-to-be well-financed Warner.
In a convention or primary, Davis could find himself in a tough race against Gilmore or another, more conservative candidate. Davis has spent years cultivating GOP activists, including helping to fund dozens of campaigns, but his moderate views on social issues and past support for some tax increases could turn off some Republican voters.
But Davis's odds could be greatly improved in a primary, in which he could try to galvanize moderate Republicans and independents in Northern Virginia to the polls. Many of these voters wouldn't be participating in a convention, which would force Davis to have to spend months wooing social conservatives who view him skeptically.
In a primary, Davis would view spending money as a down payment for what he would hope to be his eventual general election campaign.
By dumping millions into television ads, Davis would start defining himself and broaden his name recognition downstate. He also could start building his statewide organization.
Gilmore, already relatively well known, wouldn't need to spend millions on television ads in the spring to let people know who he is.If he is forced to spend heavily to win a primary, Gilmore could be broke by early summer, just when Warner starts purchasing large television buys.
Davis supporters say they can win the GOP nomination even if the party holds a convention, although they concede the latter would be more of a challenge.
But Davis should be worried if he fails Saturday to secure a primary. The 84 members of the central committee are fairly plugged into the political realities of Virginia. If Davis can't persuade them to hold a primary, what makes him think he is going to have an easier time winning over the rank-and-file activists he needs to win a convention?
A second choice for Davis will occur after the Nov..6 election for state legislative candidates. He is working hard to reelect his wife, Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-Fairfax), who is facing a tough challenge from Democrat J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen.
If Devolites Davis loses, some conservatives would use that as proof that Davis doesn't have the appeal he thought he did in Northern Virginia.
That argument is flawed. Devolites Davis very might well lose to Petersen, but it wouldn't be her husband's fault. There just might not be enough Republicans left in her district, which includes Vienna and Fairfax City, to carry her to victory against the well-liked Petersen.
In a U.S. Senate race, Davis's appeal in Northern Virginia would come from more Republican-leaning voters in western Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties.
Besides being a great strategist, Davis is a political realist. If he doesn't think he can beat Warner, he could decide to seek reelection to the congressional seat he has held since 1994.
But even that could be a tough race. Davis's congressional district has been steadily trending Democratic. Last year, he managed to get 55 percent of the vote against an underfunded and relatively uncharismatic Democratic candidate.
If Davis is going to fight next year anyway, most expect that he would rather take his chances on a Senate race.
That would leave Davis with one of toughest questions to answer: How does he beat Warner, who left office in 2006 as one of the state's most popular politicians?
Warner is well-liked in rural and suburban Virginia. Davis would have to find a way to solidify the Republican base in rural parts of the state while keeping Warner's margins down in Northern Virginia by winning at least Loudoun and Prince William and keeping the Democrat advantage in Fairfax to fewer than 40,000 votes.
Ironically, Davis's chances could be hampered if former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, a moderate, is the GOP nominee for president.
In Virginia, about 40 percent of the electorate self-identifies as born-again Christians or evangelicals, and they vote 2 to 1 for the GOP candidate.
Will these voters be motivated to show up to the polls in 2008 if Giuliani is the GOP presidential nominee and Davis the Republican Senate candidate?
One thing is certain: Warner, who said he agonized over whether to run for the Senate, had it easy compared with the decisions Davis still has to make.
Davis Enters "General Betray Us" Fray
Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a possible Republican Senate candidate in 2008, is requesting a inquiry into whether the New York Times allowed Moveon.org to run its controversial "General Betray Us" ad at a discounted rate.
In a letter to Henry A. Waxman (D-Ca), chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Davis said the "committee should hold a hearing to examine whether the advertising rates and practices of media companies conceal unlawful campaign contributions."
Davis is the ranking member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. In his letter, Davis cites a published report that said Moveon paid $65,000 for the ad. Davis said the New York Times admitted that the open rate for such an ad is $181,000.
"The discount for political advertising could constitute an unlawful campaign contribution," Davis wrote.
On September 10, Moveon published the full page ad that accused General David Petraeus of misleading the public about the military progress in Iraq. The ad included a picture of Petraeus under the caption "General Betray Us."
Republicans and conservative activists have widely condemned Moveon for the ad, which they say disrespected a highly decorated military commander.
Davis's entry in the fray comes as he trying to burnish his conservative credentials as he prepares for a possible nomination battle with former Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore III (R) for the Senate seat being vacated by John W. Warner (R-Va).
Virginia Notebook: GOP Could Learn From Democrats
If Republicans acted like Democrats, they wouldn't be priming for a clash next year over who their party's nominee will be for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by John W. Warner (R-Va.).
With former governor Mark R. Warner (D) now a Senate candidate, Republicans are bracing for a nasty primary or convention battle between Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Fairfax) and former governor James S. Gilmore
Davis supporters say Gilmore would get crushed in a primary general election on Davis's home turf in vote-rich Northern Virginia, which has been trending Democratic. Gilmore supporters counter that Davis is a RINO (Republican in Name Only).
Democrats, however, couldn't be happier with Mark Warner, a self-described moderate, as their candidate.
Democrats have been all about winning in recent election cycles, even if their nominee doesn't toe the party line on some issues.
A year ago, Northern Virginia moderates supported James Webb over Harris Miller mainly because they thought Webb's military background made him more electable than Miller.
They didn't care that Webb was a former Republican who had worked for President Ronald Reagan and had spoken out against affirmative action. Webb's subsequent victory over former Sen. George Allen (R) proved Democratic voters made the right choice by putting put aside ideology and focusing focused on the bigger picture: a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate.
Democratic delegates ousted Del. Franklin P. Hall (D-Richmond) as minority leader this year and replaced him with Ward L. A. Armstrong (D-Henry), who supports restrictions on abortion and is and pro-gun, because they thought he would be a better leader as they try to recapture the majority.
Democrats didn't care that Armstrong is so conservative he probably would have been denied a speaking role at some past Democratic National Conventions.
After losing two consecutive governor's races and last year's U.S. Senate race, Virginia Republicans should be hungry for a victory in 2008.
But at least so far, instead of a coordinated effort to win in November 2008, the discussion so far has centered on how bloody the primary or convention will be between Davis and Gilmore.
Part of the problem for the Republicans is that it isn't clear-cut whether Gilmore or Davis stands a better chance against Warner.
According to a Washington Post poll last October, Warner had a favorability rating of at least 70.percent in every region of the state.By comparison, Allen's favorability rating a year before his race, when everyone was saying he was unbeatable, ranged from 65.percent in Lynchburg/Southside to 48.percent in Northern Virginia, according to a Washington Post Poll in September 2005.
Allen came within 9,000 votes of winning his 2006 race, despite his well-publicized gaffes.
What will it take for Mark Warner to be defeated? It's going to take a lot more than the possibility of having Hillary Clinton on the same ballot as Warner next year, which some Republicans suggest is their key to victory.
Davis and Gilmore can both make convincing arguments that each is the more electable candidate against Warner.
Davis is a proven vote-getter in Northern Virginia, where Republicans need to do better if they want to win statewide. He also has a moderate voting record for a Republican south of the Mason-Dixon line, a point he believes will make him more appealing to swing voters who often decide elections.
But it remains to be seen whether Davis can whittle away at Warner's 76.percent favorability rating in Northern Virginia.
Davis could also have a hard time attacking Warner on taxes, which the Republican National Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to make an issue in the 2008 campaign.
In 2002, Davis supported the unsuccessful referendum proposal to raise the sales tax in Northern Virginia to pay for transportation improvements. In 2004, Davis offered campaign cash to House Republicans who supported Warner's $1.5.billion tax increase.
It's also hard to see how Davis will wage an effective campaign against Warner -- who had a 73.percent favorability rating in Lynchburg/Southside -- in rural Virginia considering the issue of gun control could be off the table.
In 2006, Davis earned received a D rating last year from the National Rifle Association. When Warner ran for governor in 2001, the Fairfax-based NRA gave him Warner a C. The NRA also publicly praised Warner in 2005 when he signed several pieces of pro-gun legislation, including a bill that allows permit holders to carry concealed weapons in their vehicle on school property.
Gilmore, a Richmond native, could help erode Warner's popularity in the Richmond suburbs, which a GOP candidate has to win handily to be elected statewide.
Gilmore, who is on the NRA's board of directors, could be more effective than Davis in riling up the GOP base over social issues, immigration and gun control.
But those same issues could cost Gilmore votes in Northern Virginia.
Gilmore could be dogged in a general election campaign for the Senate over his performance as governor, including Mark Warner's argument that he left the state with a $3.billion deficit.
Gilmore, whose failed presidential campaign ended in debt, also has to convince the party faithful that he is capable of raising the $15.million that will be needed to run a competitive race. Davis is a proven fundraiser with $1.million already in the bank.
Republicans may want to consider settling on their most electable candidate, as national Democrats have done in enticing Warner into the race.
But Virginia Republicans say there are no GOP brokers left in the state to resolve the split, and the ones in Washington are too distracted to get involved. And even if someone tried to intervene, party leaders say the divisions within in the GOP are so sharp that the effort to avoid a nomination battle would probably fail.
So it will most likely be up to GOP voters to decide their party's nominee. The contest should be framed around electability, which won't be a slam-dunk for Davis, instead of trying to resolve how big the GOP tent should be.
And if GOP activists chose a "RINO," they should remember that a rhinoceros looks a lot more like an elephant than a donkey does.
Can Hillary Save Jeannemarie?
State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-Fairfax) thinks U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is saving her reelection campaign against Democrat J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen.
Davis and Petersen are locked in one of the closest, most heated contests in the state, the outcome of which could determine whether the Democrats retake the state Senate.
In an interview with the Associated Press, Davis said her campaign is rebounding because Clinton's presidential bid is helping to energize moderate Republicans into supporting GOP candidates for the state legislature in the Nov. 6 election.
"She is a very polarizing figure and in her own way she is moving Republicans back to the Republican way of voting," Davis told the AP.
But Davis is seeking reelection in a district that voted for Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass) in the 2004 presidential election.The 34th district, which includes parts of Vienna and Fairfax City, also supported Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) in 2005 and Sen. James Webb (D-Va) over Republican George Allen in last year's Senate race.
If the 2008 presidential contest was held today, would Clinton beat the Republican nominee in the 34th district?
If the answer is yes, Davis could be in a lot of trouble come Election Day.
AND THEY CHOSE TO…..
Virginia GOP Picks Convention Next YearThe Associated Press - "Mark Warner's already got a 60 percent approval rating. We have to go up against that. We cannot have that and air our dirty laundry, so we have to keep it ...See all stories on this topic
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2007/09/fairfax_dems_say_baises_gloom.html
Mark Warner to Move Into New Office
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