The Virginia Scene: Warner On The Rise, The Davis Demise, Hot Races Shape Up In A Virginia Blue Shake Up. Warner Opponents Both Pieces Of Real Work!

The Virginia Scene:

Warner On The Rise,

The Davis Demise,

Hot Races Shape Up

In A Virginia Blue Shake Up.

Warner Opponents Both Pieces Of Real Work!

And Can We Get Andy Hurst To Run?

http://www.markwarner2008.com/

The Warner Financial Picture

Warner Adds to Campaign Coffers As He Readies for Senate Race ...Washington Post - United StatesBy Richmond Digest Former governor Mark R. Warner (D), a candidate for the US Senate, reported yesterday that he raised $2.7 million during the last quarter ...

Warner Adds to Campaign Coffers As He Readies for Senate Race ...Washington Post - United StatesBy Richmond Digest Former governor Mark R. Warner (D), a candidate for the US Senate, reported yesterday that he raised $2.7 million during the last quarter ...

Warner Adds to Campaign Coffers As He Readies for Senate Race ...Washington Post, United States - 6 hours agoBy Richmond Digest Former governor Mark R. Warner (D), a candidate for the US Senate, reported yesterday that he raised $2.7 million during the last quarter ...

Mark Warner Hauls In $2.7 millionWashington Post, United States - 17 hours agoFormer governor Mark R. Warner (D), a candidate for US Senate this year, will report today that he raised $2.7 million in the last quarter, ...

Warner raised $2.7 million in fourth quarterThe Hill, DC - 18 hours agoBy Aaron Blake Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) raised $2.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2007 for his Senate campaign, a tremendous total that ...

Senate Candidates Show Strength Through Dollars
CQPolitics.com - Washington,DC,USA
By Emily Cadei and Alex Knott, CQ Staff Mark Warner is living up to his billing as a formidable Senate candidate by raising $2.7 million in the last three ...

GOP retirements could shift power in SenateWashington Blade - Washington,DC,USAMark Warner in John Warner’s vacant seat. Mark Warner can “encapsulate the values of Virginia and also talk about the progressive values of the Democratic ...

Republican House incumbents dropping like fliesBuzzFlash - Chicago,IL,USADavis is a Republican who is liked by some Democrats and would have given Mark Warner a serious run for the Senate seat. That retirement is huge, ...

Virginia’s Davis Adds His Name to Long List of Retiring House ...CQPolitics.com, DC - Jan 30, 2008By Alan K. Ota, CQ Staff Thomas M. Davis III ’s decision to retire at the end of this session continues a drain on House Republicans’ seniority and ...

Davis joins House GOP exodus
Washington Times, DC - Jan 30, 2008By SA Miller and Seth McLaughlin Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (right), with House Minority Whip Roy Blunt Monday, said he is confident that the Republicans will ...

Note to House Republicans: Last one out, turn off the lightsThe Carpetbagger Report - Jan 30, 2008A few months ago, there was a spate of retirement announcements among House Republicans, but it wasn’t too big a deal. The announcements were a little early ...

Virginia’s Davis Retiring, Leaving GOP With Tough Fight to Hold SeatCQPolitics.com - Washington,DC,USAMark Warner in a state that has seen something of a recent comeback by Democrats in statewide politics after years of retreat. In disclosing to reporters in ...

Rep. Tom Davis To RetireWashington Post, United States - Jan 30, 2008US Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) said today he will retire from Congress at the end of the year, bringing to a close a 14-year stint in the House of ...

Pragmatic, Centrist Style Brought Davis Success and SuspicionWashington Post, United States - Jan 30, 2008By Bill Turque Tom Davis was just 30 when he ran his first race in 1979, for a seat on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors that Democrats had held for ...

Tom Davis and the 'Dying Breed' of ModeratesWashington Post, United States - Jan 30, 2008Last September, when centrist Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.) announced his plans to retire, Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) was asked why so many of his fellow moderate ...

membership in the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership

Connolly-Byrne Primary Roil Expected as Davis Bows OutFalls Church News Press - Falls Church,VA,USAIt was originally expected that young entrepreneur Mark Warner would seek the seat, but he chose instead to become the chair of the State Democratic Party, ...MORE…

Gerald E. Connolly (D), chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, still hasn't moved past the "exploratory" phase of his bid for Congress. But his committee very proudly shared some early fundraising numbers to make the point that Connolly has the ability to run a well-financed campaign.

According to James Walkinshaw, who runs Connolly's exploratory committee, Connolly has raised $161,000 since the beginning of January, when he announced the formation of the committee to pursue a bid in the 11th Congressional District. By contrast, fellow Democrat Leslie L. Byrne will report at the end of the month that she raised $115,000 between the November elections and the New Year, she said in an interview yesterday.

(That Report did not materialize?)

"That's in just three and a half weeks," Walkinshaw said.

Connolly has said he will announce soon whether to move on to a full-fledged campaign, thus choosing to face down Byrne in what is sure to be a heated primary race. Not coincidentally, U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), is expected to announce this week whether he will seek an eighth term or retire to pursue a career in the private sector.

Don't be shocked if Connolly says he's in right after Davis says he's out.

"Gerry will be making a decision and an announcement in the very near future," Walkinshaw said.

http://www.lesliebyrne.org/

http://www.dougforcongress.com/

Denneny Search

Statement of VA Attorney General on Decision of Congressman Tom ...All American Patriots (press release), Sweden - Jan 31, 2008By newsdesk - Posted on January 31st, 2008 January 30, 2008 -- Richmond - Attorney General Bob McDonnell issued the following statement today regarding ...

The decision leaves vacant a congressional seat in a district that has become increasingly competitive. Virginia's 11th District, which includes much of Fairfax and Prince William counties, is a cosmopolitan area where an estimated 25 percent of residents speak a language other than English at home.President Bush carried the district in 2004 with 50 percent of the vote, compared to 49 percent for Democrat John Kerry. In 2006, Democrat Jim Webb carried the district in his U.S. Senate race against Republican George Allen, by a margin of 55 percent to 44 percent.

Gov. Kaine: Sen. Webb Would Be Great Running Mate for ObamaFalls Church News Press - Falls Church,VA,USAWebb contrasted to the reaction of his predecessor, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, a likely candidate to run for the US Senate this November to fill ...

O'Malley finding Warner's path roughWashington Times - Washington,DC,USAMark Warner passed in 2004, which elevated him to national political prominence. Mr. Warner was hailed in national Democratic circles for doing the ...

Warner Speaks On Immigration
Rocktown Weekly - Harrisonburg,VA,USA
By Jeff Mellott HARRISONBURG - Mark Warner, speaking in Harrisonburg on Friday, said that he would have supported the McCain-Kennedy immigration reform bill ...

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner traveled throughout the Valley this week and also spoke on some issues that were addressed in the State of the Commonwealth Wednesday night.

Warner says the federal government needs to step up on enforcing illegal immigration. The U.S. Senate candidate says the federal government has been slacking for the last 15 years, but he also has some ideas that may be able to step up enforcement in the Valley.

With the General Assembly back in session and after Governor Tim Kaine's emphasis on continuing to enforce illegal immigration measures, it's a topic that won't go away in the Valley.

"And our Virginia Guard, our courageous Guard, helps patrol the border between Arizona and Mexico, to help federal enforcement agents. Virginia has done much to pick up the slack for broken federal immigration policy and will keep doing so," says Kaine.

And Warner says the federal government needs to do a better job of tightening our borders and enforcing the laws.

"At the same time we have to realize that we have an enormous value in legal immigration. I mean, you think here in the Valley in the agricultural industry depends, and we need to have a rational guest worker program, but also a program that allows an employer to check the person's legal status in the way that you can't have fake papers," says Warner.

Warner believes there needs to be sanctions if employers knowingly hire illegal immigrants. But he says it's important to remember that our nation is made up of millions of immigrants and we shouldn't single any one person out.

"We shouldn't change that most basic character of our country, but we also are a nation of a rule of laws," says Warner. "I think America is pro-immigrant. We're simply folks who are anti-break the law and the federal government needs to step up and do it's job in enforcing the laws."

In Thursday night's State of the Commonwealth Address, Kaine said that one in ten Virginians was born outside the US and most immigrants today are legal, but both Warner and Kaine agree that employers should be given the tools to find out whether they are hiring illegal immigrants or not. Kaine also mentioned that more proposals on immigration might be seen this year.


Marshall Campaigns for Senate SeatNBC 29 News - Charlottesville,VA,USAFormer Governor Jim Gilmore (R) is expected to run against Marshall for the Republican nomination. And another former governor, Mark Warner (D), ...

Warner addresses studentsJMU The Breeze - VA,USABy Caroline Cournoyer, staff writer So many people came out Thursday afternoon to see former Virginia Gov. and US Senate candidate Mark Warner, ...

Warner: Everything Depends On EnergyRocktown Weekly - Harrisonburg,VA,USAMark Warner visited the Valley Thursday as part of his still unofficial campaign for a seat in the US Senate, emphasizing that a change in the nation's ...

Warner in LurayWHSV - Harrisonburg,VA,USAAs former Governor Mark Warner runs for a seat in the US Senate, he is making his presence in the Commonwealth known. He kicked off his tour of the State in ...

Gilmore makes campaign stopJMU The Breeze - VA,USAGilmore playfully chided the College Democrats in the room, but avoided any serious discussion of his opponent, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. ...

Gilmore Senate fight based on conservative ideologyNews Virginian, VA - Jan 30, 2008By Bob Stuart Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore is touting his conservative philosophy, fiscal management and national security experience in his uphill ...

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore is touting his conservative philosophy, fiscal management and national security experience in his uphill battle to defeat fellow former Gov. Mark Warner in November’s U.S. Senate race.

“We must control government, including the earmarks and special interests,’’ said Gilmore during a morning stop Tuesday in Waynesboro.

Gilmore spoke Monday to college Republicans at James Madison University and met with a small group of longtime supporters in Staunton for breakfast Tuesday.

He is anxious to put forward his conservative principles to Virginia voters, and said electing Democrats to Congress means a body that would be “veto proof” and would have such names as Kennedy, Boxer and Clinton chairing Senate committees.

Gilmore, who served as Virginia’s governor from 1998 to 2002, talks about balancing the Virginia budget during his term and job creation.

But the Richmond native is offering more than just management of the economy.

The holder of a foreign policy degree from the University of Virginia, Gilmore formerly chaired a national commission on terrorism, and has visited several foreign countries.

“I’m best equipped to deal with these issues,’’ he said.

Gilmore said the United States cannot completely pull out of Iraq and the current troop surge is working, though he initially was skeptical.

The former governor said the United States cannot intervene in every foreign disturbance.

“We can’t be the policeman on every block,’’ he said.

Gilmore, who still must fend off the challenge of Northern Virginia Del. Bob Marshall in the June Republican Convention, made no mention of Mark Warner.

Warner spokesman Kevin Hall said Warner is busy meeting with Virginians “on the issues they are concerned about: the economy, our lack of energy strategy and Iraq.”

Hall said Warner will remind voters of his record of accomplishment and problem-solving.

Gilmore’s fight begins with the Republican nomination.

“He will have a convention fight with Marshall,’’ said Bob Roberts, a James Madison University political scientist.

("He is clearly, I think, at odds with the core Republican principles of limited government and personal freedom - no matter how he tries to spin his positions," he said.

Lampo said Marshall comes from the "theocrat wing of the party" to which the Log Cabin Republicans are opposed.

That pretty much sums it up about the man we like to call "Sideshow Bob" (for his repeated, outlandish comments and behavior). Yeah, this is the same guy who said that said that women who use contraception are "chemical love canals for frat house playboys." An "embarrassment" is right...except maybe in the "theocrat wing" of the Virginia Republican Party?

Marshall to run for U.S. Senate

By LILLIAN KAFKA
lkafka@manassasjm.com
Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Robert "Bob" G. Marshall, a state delegate since 1992, officially tossed his hat into the ring to run for U.S. Senate, he announced on Monday.

Marshall, a Republican representing the House of Delegate's 13th district, is a conservative politician on many issues -- including abortion - and his posture on those issues is critical for a Republican to win in Virginia, he said.

In 2007 Marshall introduced a bill, although unsuccessful, that would have banned abortions in Virginia if the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision. It's a tough stance like this - not one that is held by his opponent, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore - that Marshall said would resonate in the minds of Republican voters. Gilmore's campaign staff told the Associated Press that Gilmore believes abortions should be allowed through the first eight weeks of pregnancy.

Marshall and Gilmore will face off in a May 31 Republican convention in Richmond. The winner of that convention will run against Democrat and former Gov. Mark Warner, who is so far unopposed for his party's nomination.

They are running for the seat that became vacant in August when Republican Sen. John W. Warner announced he would not seek a sixth term.

Marshall is already building an arsenal to attack Warner, who began his gubernatorial term in 2002, directly after Gilmore served his four years as governor.

Marshall said his six years as a staffer on Capitol Hill and his 16 years in the House of Delegates give him the legislative experience necessary to operate as a U.S. Senator.

"People know me for having led on things like the marriage amendment, the right to life and home schooling," he said in a telephone interview on Monday.

During his announcement speech in Richmond, Marshall said he would push for such issues as protecting life of all children from conception, "understanding that taxpaying citizens are not bottomless ATM machines for government," keeping jobs in the U.S. as opposed to shipping them overseas, attacking the federal debt, and "recognizing that American and Allied troops have won the war and Iraqis must now win the peace."

He also cited a need to aggressively fight for U.S. energy independence and for increasing private sector jobs instead of government bureaucracy.

"I know that our rights come from the hand of our Creator, that government derives its just powers from the people expressed through their elected representatives, that the purpose of government is to protect our rights, and that government leaders must be the people's servants, not their masters," Marshall said.)

Marshall is popular among Virginia Republicans, according to Roberts.

Meanwhile, Roberts said Warner will be busy readying for the fall election and raising money.

Either Marshall or Gilmore will have a difficult time defeating Warner, Roberts said.

The wild card in the race could come from Hillary Clinton’s Democratic nomination for president.

Roberts thinks a Clinton nomination could galvanize Virginia Republicans and that could benefit Gilmore.

“With Hillary on the ticket, that will drive up the turnout of people who don’t like her,’’ he said.

Gilmore also will need financial help if he is to mount a serious challenge.

“The real problem is money,” Roberts said. “Will the Republican National Committee or Republican donors put money in Gilmore’s campaign?”

ALL THINGS VIRGINIAN AND MARK WARNER RELATED

ALL THINGS VIRGINIAN AND MARK WARNER RELATED

Delegate Won't Run, Easing Gilmore's Senate Bid
By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, December 2, 2007; Page C05
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/01/AR2007120101420.html

Virginia Del. Christopher B. Saxman said yesterday that he will not seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, clearing a major obstacle in former governor James S. Gilmore III's quest to unite the party around his candidacy before the state convention in May.

Saxman (Staunton) announced his decision at the Virginia Republican Party Advance in Crystal City, an annual retreat that draws hundreds of activists and party leaders

In the evening, a presidential straw poll was held at the retreat. Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) won with 38 percent of the votes; former Tennessee senator Fred D. Thompson came in second with 23 percent. The poll had no bearing on the delegates Virginia will send next summer to the national GOP convention. Virginia will hold a presidential primary Feb. 12.

Saxman, considered a rising star in the state party, said he decided to forgo a bid for the seat held by retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R) because he didn't think he would have enough time to raise the money needed to compete with Gilmore.

Republican Rally

http://www.charlottesvillenewsplex.tv/news/headlines/11981641.html

Posted: 6:28 PM Nov 30, 2007Last Updated: 8:00 PM Nov 30, 2007Reporter: Philip Stewart

Virginia republicans are gearing up for a very busy election cycle ahead in 2008. But it's one even republicans admit may be a challenge.

"In all things, including politics, there's ebbs and flows," said Keith Drake, the chairman of the Albemarle County Republicans. The pendulum swings both ways, and it swung the other way here the last two or three years, but I sense that it's swinging back."

About 700 republican party activists and office holders gathered in Arlington for the party's annual retreat. It's an opportunity to rally the base and build new energy in the party, as campaign 2008 kicks into high gear.

"It's a great opportunity for the Republican party to try and generate some momentum and enthusiasm," explained Sean O'Brien with the Sorensen Institute. "They've just come off a hard political season with the elections a few weeks ago and they need to get the base re-energized in 2008 and 2009."

"You've got two open seats at the federal level. (There are) lots of good republicans running for those seats and lots of good supporters of those candidates, and that will create a lot of excitement this weekend," said Drake, who has attended the annual event several times in years past.

Earlier in November, republicans lost control of the General Assembly. Ahead in 2008, democrats have a front-running senate candidate in former governor Mark Warner. And some say a democratic presidential nominee could even win Virginia for the first time in more than 40 years.

But the republican party retreat is aimed at preventing all of that from happening by energizing the supporters early. It's energy that's often carried back to smaller, individual communities by the leaders who attend the event.
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/JohnMcCaslin/2007/11/30/in_closing

Governor vs. governor

Across the Potomac River, former Virginia governor and now U.S. Senate Democratic candidate Mark Warner was spotted with campaign supporters Wednesday night at Old Town Alexandria's Stardust Restaurant.

We'd asked Democratic National Committee chairman-turned-Hillary Rodham Clinton presidential campaign manager Terry McAuliffe this week whether he would be making campaign appearances for Mr. Warner in Virginia during the course of the campaign, and he replied confidently: "Mark doesn't need my help, he'll do fine." (READ BETWEEN THAT LINE!)

Meanwhile, Inside the Beltway has word that former Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore III, Mr. Warner's Republican opponent for the seat being vacated by Virginia Republican Sen. John W. Warner, will kick off his Senate candidacy on Wednesday at the Richmond Omni.

He'll hold a second campaign kick-off at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington the next day.

Kaine: Va.'s presidential past won't trip M. Warner

Richmond Times Dispatch - Richmond,VA,USA
http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news/politics.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-11-29-0104.html

"I do not think she will hurt Mark Warner," Kaine said. Warner, a former governor, has yet to announce his choice for president. But through his spokesman, ...

Pledge of Allegiance

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/28/pledge-of-allegiance

New York Times Blogs - New York,NY,USA

Mark Warner's rise to Governor and certainly to Senate in '08 brings a new day to Virginia and possibly a completely new vision to the Democratic Party; ...

Open primaries ­ in which voters don’t have to be a member of a party to vote for its candidates ­ have long been a thorn in the sides of national Democrats and Republicans. Now, according to the Associated Press, Virginia’s G.O.P. is going to do something about it: “If you’re planning to vote in Virginia’s February Republican presidential primary, be prepared to sign an oath swearing your Republican loyalty. The State Board of Elections on Monday approved a state Republican Party request to require all who apply for a G.O.P. primary ballot first vow in writing that they’ll vote for the party’s presidential nominee next fall.”

The Roanoke Times doesn’t hanker to the idea: “The Republican Party of Virginia has no interest in thoughtful voters. It only wants mindless party loyalists who will vote Republican no matter what.” (Thanks, Steve Benen.)

Eric Kleefeld at TPM Election Central, adds: “Sen. Harry Byrd Jr. (D-VA) famously bolted from the Democrats and became an independent in the 1970s due to such a loyalty oath being imposed on candidates, but this goes an extra step by putting the the oath to voters. Oddly enough, the state Board of Elections has approved the request, even though it would be impossible to enforce the contract not only practically, but probably in legal terms, too as contracts requiring a party to vote a certain way in an election are illegal.”

Libby Spencer at the Newshoggers sees a tactical angle: “It’s unenforceable of course and probably arises from a fear that Democrats and Independents will vote for Ron Paul in the primary and then vote Democratic in the general election but it smacks of such desperation that you can almost smell the sweat.”

MARSHALL CONSIDERS RUN FOR SENATE
http://www.manassasjm.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=MJM/MGArticle/WPN_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173353636909&path=

Manassas Journal Messenger - Manassas,VA,USA

Del. Robert G. "Bob" Marshall, R-Prince William, is hoping his conservative record will boost him to the top of the GOP nomination process to replace U.S. Sen. John Warner, R-Va.

That's if he makes a formal decision to run against former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who announced one week ago that he'd run against former Gov. Mark Warner in the Senate race.

Marshall is soliciting feedback on a possible run for John Warner's seat and is waiting for the right time to decide if he'll officially throw his hat in the ring, he said on Monday.

"People are interested in me because they don't think that Gilmore can pull together the Reagan coalition they think I can," Marshall said in a phone interview.

In January Marshall will start his ninth term in the Virginia House of Delegates.

http://www.dailyprogress.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=CDP%2FMGArticle%2FCDP_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173353617745&path=!news

The season of perpetual politics in Virginia has finished the briefest of vacations and is about to gear up in earnest for U.S. Senate and presidential contests, which are just around the corner.

Republican contests for the presidential nomination are wide open in Virginia as the GOP approaches its Feb. 12 primary and an interesting Dec. 1 straw poll, while the party’s springtime nomination for the U.S. Senate is shaping up as a two-man showdown between favored conservative Jim Gilmore of Henrico County and Staunton’s own Del. Chris B. Saxman.

And for U.S. Senate ...

The winner of the likely Gilmore-Saxman nomination contest, which is to be decided at a Richmond GOP convention on May 31, gets to face overfunded Democrat Mark R. Warner of Alexandria in a Novem-ber election that Warner is heavily favored to win.

Saxman, 42, finds himself encouraged to make the bid by fellow Republicans in the House of Delegates, where he is a well-liked conservative who has been widely believed to be a likely 2009 candidate for lieutenant governor.

Those encouraging him to join the U.S. Senate nomination contest with Gil-more say it will not hurt his potential bid for state-wide office the following year.

‘Happy,’ he’s not

http://www.dailypress.com/news/nationworld/dp-news_gilmore_1120nov20,0,6038859.story

Washington — - In launching his U.S. Senate campaign Monday, former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore could be heading for a titanic clash against his Democratic successor: former Gov. Mark Warner.On one side would be Gilmore, the conservative crusader against Virginia's hated car tax who helped create a Republican majority in the General Assembly.On the other side stands Warner, the tech-savvy businessman who worked across party lines to rejuvenate the state's economy, streamline government and protect the state's top credit rating.

But next year's potentially epic struggle to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. John Warner hardly begins as an even match.Gilmore enters the race as the clear underdog, hobbled by weak public approval ratings, questionable fundraising prowess, and a fractured Republican Party base that is uneasy about his candidacy.While Mark Warner appears to have a lock on the Democratic Party nomination, Gilmore could face a challenge for his party's backing from a younger, less strident, conservative rival.State Del. Chris Saxman, R-Augusta, said Monday he is seriously exploring a Senate bid at the encouragement of House colleagues and others.

THE PROMISED LAND
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20071122_the_promised_land

Truthdig - United States

... advice to sebelius and former virginia gov. mark warner, a democrat who once persuaded a republican legislature to raise taxes. warner, o'malley said, ...

WASHINGTON—Imagine a place where the leading politician pokes fun at those who “regard all taxes as a pestilence, a plague or a disease.”

Imagine the same politician saying: “Not one of us wants to pay more in taxes. But you know what we want even less? What we want even less is to leave our country to our kids in a worsened condition.”

And imagine a place where other politicians are grown-ups and decide that closing budget deficits requires a mix of tax increases and spending cuts.

The place in question is clearly not Washington, D.C. Facing a $1.7 billion budget deficit, Gov. Martin O’Malley—who offered the above observations in an interview—led the Maryland Legislature this week to approve $1.4 billion in taxes and $550 million in spending cuts. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen that kind of balance from the federal government.

At the same time, the Legislature extended health coverage to 100,000 of its citizens and approved new money for transportation, education and cleaning up the Chesapeake Bay.

You’d be laughed out of the state if you ever claimed that Annapolis, the capital, was home to model behavior, political purity or Solomonic wisdom.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-111907-gilmore,1,1704105.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

Former Va. governor running for Senate
By Tim Craig and Debbi Wilgoren The Washington Post
9:57 AM CST, November 19, 2007

RICHMOND, Va. - Former governor James Gilmore announced Monday morning he will be a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate next year.
In an e-mailed announcement, Gilmore declared, "The race is on."
Gilmore, who leans right on taxes and social issues, was widely expected to run for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. John Warner (R), one of the Senate's best-known moderates. Gilmore becomes the first GOP candidate to enter the race.

If he secures the nomination, he will likely face Democrat Mark Warner, who succeeded him as governor in a state that has teetered in recent national elections between red and blue.
"I'm running for the United States Senate from Virginia because I want to be one of those leaders who call on the spirit that is common in all of us and use it to restore our country for the benefit of our people and in the eyes of the world," Gilmore, 58, said in an announcement video.
Gilmore was governor from 1998 to 2002 and served before that as Virginia's attorney general. He briefly campaigned to become the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, but he failed to gather significant traction and dropped out in July.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1950254720071119

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican former Gov. Jim Gilmore of Virginia, whose 2008 presidential bid never got off the ground, said on Monday he would run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Republican John Warner.

Gilmore's long-expected announcement sets up a high-profile Senate race against popular Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner in the November 2008 election. The match-up will be crucial to Democratic hopes of expanding their slim one-seat margin of power in the Senate.

Gilmore headed a national commission on terrorism before the September 11, 2001, attacks and is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and the Republican Governors Association.

"I can offer Virginians unparalleled experience and a strong and steady hand," on crucial issues like national security, transportation, immigration and education, he said in a video announcing his candidacy.

"On all these issues, our leaders have let us down and we badly need new hands on the wheel," he said. "In the last year, we have unfortunately seen that these failures are not just unique to one political party."

http://www.examiner.com/a-1057318~Gilmore_formally_enters_U_S__Senate_race.html

WASHINGTON (Map, News) - Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore officially announced Monday morning he will run for the U.S. Senate next year, setting up a showdown with the popular Democrat who succeeded him.

Gilmore, who briefly sought the Republican presidential nomination earlier this year, made his declaration in a video statement e-mailed to supporters and the media.

"We have a great many challenges facing our country," said Gilmore, who served as the state's chief executive from 1998 to 2002. "Of course, serious problems and crises are nothing new for America. But today, I'm sorry to say, we also find too often that our leaders just aren't up to the challenge."

Gilmore alienated many moderate Republicans during his gubernatorial term by pushing forward with plans to eliminate the personal property tax on automobiles, despite the proposal's escalating costs and a slowing state economy. The disagreement led to a historic budget impasse in 2001 and bolstered Democrat Mark Warner's campaign for governor against Republican Attorney General Mark Earley.

The race will be expensive. Warner, a multimillionaire, raised $1.1 million in less than three weeks after announcing his campaign in October. Early polls following Warner's kickoff showed him way ahead of potential Republican rivals, including Gilmore, but pundits are not anointing the Democrat yet.

"I think Gilmore has more of a chance than people are giving him credit for," said Sean O'Brien, director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. "He believes so strongly in what he is doing and he has been elected statewide as attorney general and then governor. He has a lot of people out there who will support him no matter what."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111901512.html

2009 GOVERNOR'S RACE WILL BE STATE'S LITMUS TEST

For those who can't get enough of Virginia elections, time to look ahead to the governor's race in 2009.

Yes, there is a U.S. Senate and presidential election next November.

But with former governor Mark R. Warner (D) an early favorite to win the Senate race, the election for governor will be the contest that will really decide whether Virginia is turning blue or if party gains this decade were largely because of President Bush's unpopularity.

Candidates in both major parties are starting to gear up for the governor's race. And much of the early positioning centers on who is most likely to win a general election, an issue that might dominate both parties' nominating contests in 2009.

Is Every Democrat In Virginia a 'Centrist'?

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tim-graham/2007/11/20/every-democrat-virginia-centrist

NewsBusters – USA

As governor, Mark Warner largely stuck with the libertine left when social issues came before the legislature. Warner's transition from statewide campaigns ...

MONEY WOES KEEP GOP WORRIED ABOUT 2008
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/6836.html

Senate Republicans are in trouble, and last week’s Democratic victories in Kentucky and Virginia suggest their challenges may be steeper than even they thought. The day after Republican Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher was tossed out of office, one of his biggest political patrons launched ads to protect himself from the fallout.

Who was he?

No less than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

THE VIRGINIA REPORT: WARNER OUT OF THE GATE FAST AND CLEAN; GILMORE READY TO GET MEAN, AND DAVIS NOT TRUSTED BY HIS OWN TEAM.

THE VIRGINIA REPORT: WARNER OUT OF THE GATE FAST AND CLEAN; GILMORE READY TO GET MEAN, AND DAVIS NOT TRUSTED BY HIS OWN TEAM.

VIRGINIA: Poll gives Mark Warner wide lead in Senate raceDelmarva Daily Times - MD,USA"I pretty much always voted Republican, but I would vote for Mark Warner," said Jimmy Wetzel, 64, of Shenandoah. "I think on some things, Mark Warner is ...See all stories on this topic

Mark Warner Senate bid raises more than $1 million in two weeksDaily Press - Newport News,VA,USAMark Warner has no Democratic opponent. Republicans on Saturday voted to choose their nominee next June in a statewide convention. Former Gov. See all stories on this topic

GOP Convention Favors GilmoreWSLS.com - Roanoke,VA,USAWhoever wins, they'll face Democrat Mark Warner. He's already running with appearances last week in Roanoke . And in his first two weeks as a declared ...See all stories on this topic

Senate money flows inThe Hill - Washington,DC,USAMark Warner (D) raised $1.1 million in the third quarter, bringing him into a virtual cash tie with Rep. Tom Davis (R) after less than three weeks of ...See all stories on this topic

Washington Post PollWashington Post - United StatesMark Warner 67 19 15 b. Jim Gilmore 40 33 27 c. Tom Davis 28 18 54 12. Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a ...See all stories on this topic

Swing State ProjectSwing State Project - New York,USAMark Warner, in a general election. Many on this site and others know that I truly believe that Tom Davis can compete with Warner and keep the race See all stories on this topic

Post Poll: Mark Warner Riding High Into '08Express from The Washington Post - Washington,DC,USAIn the race to fill the seat of retiring US Senator John Warner, a Republican, popular Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner, no relation, has a wide 30-point ...See all stories on this topic

Democrats stop in Roanoke to tout 4 House candidatesRoanoke Times - Roanoke,VA,USAMark Warner and Democratic caucus leader Del. Brian Moran, D-Alexandria, swung through Roanoke on Thursday to raise money for the homestretch of 11 hotly ...See all stories on this topic

Mark Warner's back on the campaign trail in western VirginiaWDBJ7.com - Roanoke,VA,USAFormer Governor Mark Warner is back on the campaign trail, stumping for Democratic candidates in the fall elections and laying the ground work for his own ...See all stories on this topic


As Virginia Republican leaders gather this weekend to decide whether to hold a convention or primary to select their nominee for the U.S. Senate, no one will be following the outcome closer than U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.).

For Davis, the leaders' decision could help determine whether he will enter the nominating contest that will determine which Republican takes on former governor Mark R. Warner (D) in the general election.

Throughout the summer, much of the focus was on the options Warner had as he considered whether to run for the Senate next year or governor in 2009. But Davis, who is widely regarded as a moderate Republican, also has options that require lots of decisions over the coming weeks.

The first is whether to run for Senate, depending on what happens Saturday. The committee vote will shape the GOP contest for the Senate nomination in the spring.

In a convention, several thousand GOP activists, many driven by their opposition to abortion rights, pack a location to choose the party's nominee. But in a primary, any Virginian could vote.

Davis has been working hard to secure a primary, which he argues would give the eventual GOP candidate time to build familiarity with voters.

Some conservatives, including former governor James S. Gilmore III (R), are advocating a convention. Gilmore, who is also pondering a bid for the Senate, says that a convention would cost each candidate about $1.million, compared with the $4.million that might have to be spent to win a primary.

And that $3.million saved, Gilmore argues, could be better used in a general election against the sure-to-be well-financed Warner.

In a convention or primary, Davis could find himself in a tough race against Gilmore or another, more conservative candidate. Davis has spent years cultivating GOP activists, including helping to fund dozens of campaigns, but his moderate views on social issues and past support for some tax increases could turn off some Republican voters.

But Davis's odds could be greatly improved in a primary, in which he could try to galvanize moderate Republicans and independents in Northern Virginia to the polls. Many of these voters wouldn't be participating in a convention, which would force Davis to have to spend months wooing social conservatives who view him skeptically.

In a primary, Davis would view spending money as a down payment for what he would hope to be his eventual general election campaign.

By dumping millions into television ads, Davis would start defining himself and broaden his name recognition downstate. He also could start building his statewide organization.

Gilmore, already relatively well known, wouldn't need to spend millions on television ads in the spring to let people know who he is.If he is forced to spend heavily to win a primary, Gilmore could be broke by early summer, just when Warner starts purchasing large television buys.

Davis supporters say they can win the GOP nomination even if the party holds a convention, although they concede the latter would be more of a challenge.

But Davis should be worried if he fails Saturday to secure a primary. The 84 members of the central committee are fairly plugged into the political realities of Virginia. If Davis can't persuade them to hold a primary, what makes him think he is going to have an easier time winning over the rank-and-file activists he needs to win a convention?

A second choice for Davis will occur after the Nov..6 election for state legislative candidates. He is working hard to reelect his wife, Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-Fairfax), who is facing a tough challenge from Democrat J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen.

If Devolites Davis loses, some conservatives would use that as proof that Davis doesn't have the appeal he thought he did in Northern Virginia.

That argument is flawed. Devolites Davis very might well lose to Petersen, but it wouldn't be her husband's fault. There just might not be enough Republicans left in her district, which includes Vienna and Fairfax City, to carry her to victory against the well-liked Petersen.

In a U.S. Senate race, Davis's appeal in Northern Virginia would come from more Republican-leaning voters in western Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties.

Besides being a great strategist, Davis is a political realist. If he doesn't think he can beat Warner, he could decide to seek reelection to the congressional seat he has held since 1994.

But even that could be a tough race. Davis's congressional district has been steadily trending Democratic. Last year, he managed to get 55 percent of the vote against an underfunded and relatively uncharismatic Democratic candidate.

If Davis is going to fight next year anyway, most expect that he would rather take his chances on a Senate race.

That would leave Davis with one of toughest questions to answer: How does he beat Warner, who left office in 2006 as one of the state's most popular politicians?

Warner is well-liked in rural and suburban Virginia. Davis would have to find a way to solidify the Republican base in rural parts of the state while keeping Warner's margins down in Northern Virginia by winning at least Loudoun and Prince William and keeping the Democrat advantage in Fairfax to fewer than 40,000 votes.

Ironically, Davis's chances could be hampered if former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, a moderate, is the GOP nominee for president.

In Virginia, about 40 percent of the electorate self-identifies as born-again Christians or evangelicals, and they vote 2 to 1 for the GOP candidate.

Will these voters be motivated to show up to the polls in 2008 if Giuliani is the GOP presidential nominee and Davis the Republican Senate candidate?

One thing is certain: Warner, who said he agonized over whether to run for the Senate, had it easy compared with the decisions Davis still has to make.

Davis Enters "General Betray Us" Fray

Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a possible Republican Senate candidate in 2008, is requesting a inquiry into whether the New York Times allowed Moveon.org to run its controversial "General Betray Us" ad at a discounted rate.

In a letter to Henry A. Waxman (D-Ca), chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Davis said the "committee should hold a hearing to examine whether the advertising rates and practices of media companies conceal unlawful campaign contributions."

Davis is the ranking member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. In his letter, Davis cites a published report that said Moveon paid $65,000 for the ad. Davis said the New York Times admitted that the open rate for such an ad is $181,000.

"The discount for political advertising could constitute an unlawful campaign contribution," Davis wrote.

On September 10, Moveon published the full page ad that accused General David Petraeus of misleading the public about the military progress in Iraq. The ad included a picture of Petraeus under the caption "General Betray Us."

Republicans and conservative activists have widely condemned Moveon for the ad, which they say disrespected a highly decorated military commander.

Davis's entry in the fray comes as he trying to burnish his conservative credentials as he prepares for a possible nomination battle with former Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore III (R) for the Senate seat being vacated by John W. Warner (R-Va).

Virginia Notebook: GOP Could Learn From Democrats

If Republicans acted like Democrats, they wouldn't be priming for a clash next year over who their party's nominee will be for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by John W. Warner (R-Va.).

With former governor Mark R. Warner (D) now a Senate candidate, Republicans are bracing for a nasty primary or convention battle between Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Fairfax) and former governor James S. Gilmore

Davis supporters say Gilmore would get crushed in a primary general election on Davis's home turf in vote-rich Northern Virginia, which has been trending Democratic. Gilmore supporters counter that Davis is a RINO (Republican in Name Only).

Democrats, however, couldn't be happier with Mark Warner, a self-described moderate, as their candidate.

Democrats have been all about winning in recent election cycles, even if their nominee doesn't toe the party line on some issues.

A year ago, Northern Virginia moderates supported James Webb over Harris Miller mainly because they thought Webb's military background made him more electable than Miller.

They didn't care that Webb was a former Republican who had worked for President Ronald Reagan and had spoken out against affirmative action. Webb's subsequent victory over former Sen. George Allen (R) proved Democratic voters made the right choice by putting put aside ideology and focusing focused on the bigger picture: a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate.

Democratic delegates ousted Del. Franklin P. Hall (D-Richmond) as minority leader this year and replaced him with Ward L. A. Armstrong (D-Henry), who supports restrictions on abortion and is and pro-gun, because they thought he would be a better leader as they try to recapture the majority.

Democrats didn't care that Armstrong is so conservative he probably would have been denied a speaking role at some past Democratic National Conventions.

After losing two consecutive governor's races and last year's U.S. Senate race, Virginia Republicans should be hungry for a victory in 2008.

But at least so far, instead of a coordinated effort to win in November 2008, the discussion so far has centered on how bloody the primary or convention will be between Davis and Gilmore.

Part of the problem for the Republicans is that it isn't clear-cut whether Gilmore or Davis stands a better chance against Warner.

According to a Washington Post poll last October, Warner had a favorability rating of at least 70.percent in every region of the state.By comparison, Allen's favorability rating a year before his race, when everyone was saying he was unbeatable, ranged from 65.percent in Lynchburg/Southside to 48.percent in Northern Virginia, according to a Washington Post Poll in September 2005.

Allen came within 9,000 votes of winning his 2006 race, despite his well-publicized gaffes.

What will it take for Mark Warner to be defeated? It's going to take a lot more than the possibility of having Hillary Clinton on the same ballot as Warner next year, which some Republicans suggest is their key to victory.

Davis and Gilmore can both make convincing arguments that each is the more electable candidate against Warner.

Davis is a proven vote-getter in Northern Virginia, where Republicans need to do better if they want to win statewide. He also has a moderate voting record for a Republican south of the Mason-Dixon line, a point he believes will make him more appealing to swing voters who often decide elections.

But it remains to be seen whether Davis can whittle away at Warner's 76.percent favorability rating in Northern Virginia.

Davis could also have a hard time attacking Warner on taxes, which the Republican National Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to make an issue in the 2008 campaign.

In 2002, Davis supported the unsuccessful referendum proposal to raise the sales tax in Northern Virginia to pay for transportation improvements. In 2004, Davis offered campaign cash to House Republicans who supported Warner's $1.5.billion tax increase.

It's also hard to see how Davis will wage an effective campaign against Warner -- who had a 73.percent favorability rating in Lynchburg/Southside -- in rural Virginia considering the issue of gun control could be off the table.

In 2006, Davis earned received a D rating last year from the National Rifle Association. When Warner ran for governor in 2001, the Fairfax-based NRA gave him Warner a C. The NRA also publicly praised Warner in 2005 when he signed several pieces of pro-gun legislation, including a bill that allows permit holders to carry concealed weapons in their vehicle on school property.

Gilmore, a Richmond native, could help erode Warner's popularity in the Richmond suburbs, which a GOP candidate has to win handily to be elected statewide.

Gilmore, who is on the NRA's board of directors, could be more effective than Davis in riling up the GOP base over social issues, immigration and gun control.

But those same issues could cost Gilmore votes in Northern Virginia.

Gilmore could be dogged in a general election campaign for the Senate over his performance as governor, including Mark Warner's argument that he left the state with a $3.billion deficit.

Gilmore, whose failed presidential campaign ended in debt, also has to convince the party faithful that he is capable of raising the $15.million that will be needed to run a competitive race. Davis is a proven fundraiser with $1.million already in the bank.

Republicans may want to consider settling on their most electable candidate, as national Democrats have done in enticing Warner into the race.

But Virginia Republicans say there are no GOP brokers left in the state to resolve the split, and the ones in Washington are too distracted to get involved. And even if someone tried to intervene, party leaders say the divisions within in the GOP are so sharp that the effort to avoid a nomination battle would probably fail.

So it will most likely be up to GOP voters to decide their party's nominee. The contest should be framed around electability, which won't be a slam-dunk for Davis, instead of trying to resolve how big the GOP tent should be.

And if GOP activists chose a "RINO," they should remember that a rhinoceros looks a lot more like an elephant than a donkey does.

Can Hillary Save Jeannemarie?

State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-Fairfax) thinks U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is saving her reelection campaign against Democrat J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen.

Davis and Petersen are locked in one of the closest, most heated contests in the state, the outcome of which could determine whether the Democrats retake the state Senate.

In an interview with the Associated Press, Davis said her campaign is rebounding because Clinton's presidential bid is helping to energize moderate Republicans into supporting GOP candidates for the state legislature in the Nov. 6 election.

"She is a very polarizing figure and in her own way she is moving Republicans back to the Republican way of voting," Davis told the AP.

But Davis is seeking reelection in a district that voted for Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass) in the 2004 presidential election.The 34th district, which includes parts of Vienna and Fairfax City, also supported Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) in 2005 and Sen. James Webb (D-Va) over Republican George Allen in last year's Senate race.
If the 2008 presidential contest was held today, would Clinton beat the Republican nominee in the 34th district?

If the answer is yes, Davis could be in a lot of trouble come Election Day.

AND THEY CHOSE TO…..

Virginia GOP Picks Convention Next YearThe Associated Press - "Mark Warner's already got a 60 percent approval rating. We have to go up against that. We cannot have that and air our dirty laundry, so we have to keep it ...See all stories on this topic

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2007/09/fairfax_dems_say_baises_gloom.html

Mark Warner to Move Into New Office

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YES VIRGINIA; THERE IS A VIRGINIA! MARK WARNER'S VIRGINIA.

BREAKING NEWS: VA-SEN: MARK WARNER IS IN!

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VA-Sen: Warner (D) is in

by Skulnick
Thu Sep 13, 2007 at 05:59:57 AM PDT

Any moment now Former Governor of Virginia Mark Warner is planning on releasing a bulk e-mail announcing his future intentions of either running for the recently vacated Senate seat or for the Governor's seat in 2009.

This morning the New York Times Blog is reporting that he'll make a run at the Senate:

WASHINGTON — Former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia has told fellow Democrats that he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Senator John Warner, a Republican, who is retiring after serving five terms. An aide to Mark Warner said he would announce his decision on Thursday.

Mark Warner, 52, served as governor from 2002 to 2006 and had briefly contemplated running for the Democratic nomination for president. He had raised $9 million for a potential White House bid before deciding against it last October. Virginia law bars its governors from seeking re-election to a consecutive term.

Poll

How excited are you for Mark Warner's potential run?
102 votes Vote Results

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Good news from Virginia

by lickalamb

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 04:51:31 PM PDT

According to local radio, Mark Warner is to announce his intent to run for U.S. Senate from Virginia tomorrow Sept. 13, 2007 @9AM by email. With recent poll numbers in mind, moderate Republican Tom Davis(R-VA-11th Dist.) would be foolish to give up his safe U.S. House seat to go up against a popular former governor (80% approval rating when he left office in 2006). But I dare Davis to do it because we would have opportunity to capture both the House and the Senate seats since the 11th district is in recently-turned democratic territory of Northern Virginia.

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Reality check on all polls

by kos

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 08:44:00 AM PDT

This can be a cautionary tale or one of hope, depending on perspective.

Yesterday, I ran this poll, brimming with confidence:

Rasmussen. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)

Virginia Survey of 500 Likely VotersSeptember 5, 2007
Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mark Warner (D)
Jim Gilmore (R)
34%
Mark Warner (D)
54%

Virginia Senate

Democrat Warner Holds Large Lead Over Davis and Gilmore

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

If Democrat Mark Warner jumps into the Virginia Senate race for 2008, he will start out with a large lead over two Republicans expected to campaign for the job.

In a match-up of former Virginia Governors, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Warner leading Jim Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%. Warner also starts the season with a comfortable lead over Virginia Congressman Tom Davis. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Warner attracting 57% of the vote while Davis earns 30%.

In 2008, Virginia voters will select a new face to replace the retiring Republican Senator John Warner. The retiring Republican Senator is not related to the Democratic Governor who might seek to replace him.

A separate release shows that the Presidential race for Virginia’s Electoral Votes is much more competitive at this time.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Virginia voters say that Iraq will be a Very Important issue for determining their Congressional vote in 2008. Seventy-three percent (73%) Government Ethics and Corruption will be a Very Important issue while 71% say the same about the economy.

Iraq and Health Care are the top issues for Democratic voters in Virginia. Among Republicans, Iraq and Ethics are the top concerns. For Virginia voters not affiliated with either major party, the economy is the top issue followed by Iraq. Nationally, voters tend to prefer Democrats over Republicans on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

Governor Warner, who initially considered seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008, is viewed favorably by 68% of the state’s voters and unfavorably by 28%.

Governor Gilmore, who recently dropped his long-shot bid for the Republican Presidential nomination, is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 42%.

Davis, as a Congressman, is less well known. Forty-three percent (43%) offer a positive assessment of Davis, 35% have a negative opinion, and 22% don’t know enough to have an opinion one way or the other.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

A separate release shows that the Presidential race for Virginia’s Electoral Votes is much more competitive at this time.

Surveys were released today for the Presidential race in Minnesota, and Massachusetts along with the Senate race poll for Minnesota.

Rasmussen Reports has also released Election 2008 state polling results in Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, Colorado, New Hampshire, New York and Illinois.

In Primary Polls, Clinton leads all Democrats in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

The Republican Primary picture is more muddled. Romney leads in New Hampshire, Thompson leads in South Carolina, and Giuliani is on top in Florida.

See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54
Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57
An old friend reminded me of this poll:

Rasmussen. 12/7/05. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (no trend lines)
Allen (R) 57 Webb (D) 26

Allen had a 31-point lead less than a year before the 2006 elections. So we can never get too comfy if we're way ahead, and we shouldn't always despair if we're far behind.

In politics, things can change overnight.

Update: Obviously the dynamics of a Mark Warner matchup are different than those of the Webb/Allen race. The point wasn't that they're the same. The point was that in politics, things change and that while we can celebrate the good polls, those polls aren't everything. Campaigns still need to be run.

If the Draft Webb movement had taken this Rasmussen poll as gospel, we would've given up on Webb and ceded the race to Allen. We didn't. If the Allen people hadn't gotten cocky and overconfident after polls like this one, they wouldn't have been working on their presidential effort, telling people in Iowa that he wished he'd been born there and that he was running for president because he was bored of the Senate.

Race tracker wiki: VA-Sen

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VA-Sen: Run Mark, Run!
by kos
Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 09:41:07 AM PDT

Rasmussen Reports. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)
Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54

Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57

It's not even close.
Warner is expected to announce on Thursday whether he's running for this Senate seat, or whether he's waiting for the 2009 governor's race.

Race tracker wiki: VA-Sen

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Yes Virginia, There is a Virginia

Mark Warner For Senate Confirmed: 1st Report

WARNER FOR SENATE: THE SPECULATION IS OVER EMAIL CONFIRMATION RECEIVED HERE! YES!!!

From: "Gov. Mark R. Warner " <info@markwarner2008.com>

To: ed.dickau@shadowpolitics.us Date: Thu, 13 Sep 2007 14:27:48 +0000

Dear Friend,

Thirteen days ago, my friend, Senator John Warner announced his retirement from the US Senate. He has served Virginia and our country with distinction, and brought an independence and civility to office we need to see more of in public life.

After his announcement, I said that I would make my future plans public in the coming days. After a great deal of reflection, talking with my family and friends, I've reached my decision.

I hope you will watch my announcement video -- and join us in this effort.

With best wishes,

Mark Warner

Paid for by Friends of Mark Warner.
201 North Union Street Suite 350

Alexandria, VA 22314

September 12, 2007, 7:53 pm

Warner for Senate: Mark, Not John
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warner

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/12/warner-for-senate-mark-not-john

http://www.draftmarkwarner.com

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/12/AR2006101200510.html

The Associated PressWarner for Senate: Mark Not John - 12 hours ago
Mark Warner of Virginia has told fellow Democrats that he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Senator John Warner, a Republican, who is retiring ...
New York Times - 209 related articles »

By David M. Herszenhorn

WASHINGTON — Former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia has told fellow Democrats that he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Senator John Warner, a Republican, who is retiring after serving five terms. An aide to Mark Warner said he would announce his decision on Thursday.

The two Warners are not related.

Mark Warner, 52, served as governor from 2002 to 2006 and had briefly contemplated running for the Democratic nomination for president. He had raised $9 million for a potential White House bid before deciding against it last October. Virginia law bars its governors from seeking re-election to a consecutive term.

Early in his career, Mr. Warner served on the staff of Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut. He then went on to make millions in the telecommunications field, and his personal fortune is estimated at more than $200 million.

Virginia will be a key battleground in 2008 as Democrats seek to extend their majority in Congress. Two Republicans have also expressed interest in the Senate seat: Representative Thomas M. Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who himself mounted a presidential this year before dropping out in July.

Mark Warner for Senate 2008

by: The Grey Havens

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 00:56:09 AM EDT
It's no secret, but the whispers are rising to the level of a great roar. Governor Warner will rise for the Senate seat newly vacated by retiring Senator John Warner.

The Virginia Pilot reports:

Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is widely expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate on Thursday, pledging to bring a spirit of bipartisanship to Washington.

Warner, in around-the-clock meetings and phone calls with political advisers in recent weeks, has been weighing whether to run for the Senate seat being vacated next year by longtime Republican incumbent John Warner, or wait until 2009 and run again for governor.

One strategist who asked not to be identified said Warner has put out word to a few that he has decided on the Senate. Many others said Warner had indicated in conversations with them in recent days that he is leaning heavily toward the Senate.

Can you feel it!? That's the electricity of Mark Warner's presence pervading early into the 2007, 2008, and 2009 election cycles...

The Grey Havens :: Mark Warner for Senate 2008

Thursday is the day, but sources say this is nearly a done deal. Mark Warner will run for the US Senate 2008:

"I'd be surprised if he didn't run for the Senate," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, who said he spoke with Warner on Friday night.

One ally, who spoke with Warner on Monday, said the former governor put his chances of declaring for the Senate at "80-20."

His presence up ballot will raise all ships in 2008, helping Congressional Democrats and putting Virginia powerfully in play for the Presidential election.

Closer to home, Mark Warner's name and image, as the hallmark of Virginia Democrats, will only serve to reinforce the powerful gathering storm that is threatening to give Democrats control of the Virginia Senate, and potentially the House this year.

This is the starting gun for the Brigades of volunteers who helped elect Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in recent years. The wind is at our backs. Every electoral prize in 2007, 2008, and 2009 is within reach if we simply do what we can.

Virginia is the home of Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, and Mark Warner. There's never been a better time to be a fightin' Virginia Democrat!


Mark Warner for Senate 2008 18 comments
by: you @ soon
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I'll admit, victory means momentum (4.00 / 1)

If we can pull off another victory in Virginia, it means momentum. If we can somehow manage to miraculously win turn VA Blue by voting for a Dem President, then we would certainly have the momentum to carry us into 2009's race (as long as we don't have an little spat between Deeds and Moran supporters).

Though I wish Mark not John would run for Governor, I'll do everything I can to help him be elected Senator.

"Duty is the sublimest word in our language. Do your duty in all things. You cannot do more. You should never wish to do less." -Robert E. Lee

by: DanG @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 00:00:11 AM CDT
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Is it too late to be the first to endorse Mark Warner? (4.00 / 1)
If not...

I wholeheartedly endorse Mark Warner for US Senate.

God Bless the Great Commonwealth of Virginia and God Bless America!!!

by: The Grey Havens @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 00:04:21 AM CDT

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It's like a big, blue avalanche (0.00 / 0)

Kerrey, Warner, Shaheen....

Political HayMark Warner's Choice By Liz Mair Published 9/10/2007 12:08:11 AM

In the wake of Republican Sen. John Warner's retirement announcement just over a week ago, focus has shifted away from the Senate maverick to another outside-the-mold Warner of Virginia politics -- Democratic ex-Gov. Mark Warner.

Speculation has been rife for months that if Sen. Warner declined to run for re-election in 2008, the former Governor would step into the ring. However, over Labor Day weekend, Mr. Warner made clear that he is weighing at least two options: running for Senate (as anticipated), or running for Governor again (less so). A third option has also been mentioned: joining the 2008 Democratic presidential ticket in the vice-presidential slot.

Any and all of

these possibilities must be tempting to Mr. Warner, who left office in 2006 with a 72 percent approval rating, according to SurveyUSA. After all, he has made clear that he's interested in running for something big again, and soon, commenting to a crowd in Newport News over Labor Day weekend, "My hope and prayer is that sometime in the next few weeks I may be able to come back to y'all as a job applicant." But, the buffet of political choices nonetheless presents Mr. Warner with a conundrum.

On the one hand, Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is eager to sign Mr. Warner on as the Democrats' candidate for the 2008 Virginia Senate race. Over Labor Day weekend, on ABC's This Week, he said he hoped that Mr. Warner would run and praised him as "outstanding," and "just exemplary."

Mr. Warner would likely fare better in the race than would current Gov. Tim Kaine, who has also been mentioned as a potential candidate (Mr. Kaine's approval rating currently stands at a rather low 54 percent). Ditto that for Virginia Reps. Rick Boucher or Bobby Scott, whose names have also been thrown into the mix, but who are significantly less well-known across the Old Dominion. But while Mr. Schumer may be angling for Mr. Warner to step into the ring -- his ring, specifically -- a look at the ex-Governor's background suggests that spending six years in the U.S. Senate just may not be his style.

Prior to his election as Governor, Mr. Warner helped to found Nextel, and then venture capital firm Columbia Capital. That suggests a flair for the executive -- and that like his fellow former Virginia governor, ex-Sen. George Allen, the deliberative, stuffy Senate could end up boring him. For a man who seems to like running things, not debating and taking orders from his colleagues, the smart money is on him taking a serious look at running for Governor again.

Virginia law limits gubernatorial terms to one at a time. But, with Mr. Warner's political heir, Mr. Kaine, due to finish his term in January 2010, there is nothing that would prevent Mr. Warner from stepping into the ring again in 2009 to reclaim his old job. However, the question is, for a man who looks like he's itching to get back into elected office, can he wait that long? And what will he do in the meantime?
This consideration probably tips the scales towards a Senate run. However, with his name still in the mix as a preferred vice presidential candidate in 2008, Mr. Warner might just be able to have his cake and eat it, too.

With Sen. Hillary Clinton currently polling 16.8 percent ahead of her nearest rival, nationally, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average, and ahead by a noticeable margin in most early primary state polls, the current presumption is that she will be the Democratic nominee. The probability of that outcome will feature heavily in Mr. Warner's decision-making, with his name remaining at the top of the veep-nominee list.

Certainly, adding Mr. Warner to a presidential ticket would be a smart move for Mrs. Clinton. Yes, he did raise taxes on a bigger scale than ever before seen in Virginia, relying on disarray amongst Republicans to get the hike through.

But he also scored better than five of his fellow first-term governors, including one Republican, and eleven second-term governors, including six Republicans, on the CATO Institute's 2004 Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors (19 first-term, and 6 second-term, governors scored better than Mr. Warner). That makes him look more moderate than Mrs. Clinton, who despite all of her efforts at centrist positioning in the Senate, is still perceived as being of the far left by much of the electorate.

But would a Clinton-Warner team work? When Mr. Warner withdrew his name from presidential consideration last year, there was speculation in Democratic circles that Mrs. Clinton forced him out of the race. What is certain is that last year, Mrs. Clinton's assistants sought to smack Mr. Warner down after he commented that she "couldn't win" (without him on her ticket, he might just be proved correct).

In light of that apparent rivalry, the smart money has to be on Mr. Warner not banking on a vice-presidential nomination. And that, combined with his evident desire to get back into the political ring and quickly, suggests that a Senate candidacy on the part of the other Mr. Warner will be forthcoming.

Liz Mair is a political columnist, commentator, and consultant in Arlington, Virginia. She writes daily at

www.lizmair.com .

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