YES VIRGINIA; THERE IS A VIRGINIA! MARK WARNER'S VIRGINIA.

BREAKING NEWS: VA-SEN: MARK WARNER IS IN!

http://www.markwarner2008.com/

VA-Sen: Warner (D) is in

by Skulnick
Thu Sep 13, 2007 at 05:59:57 AM PDT

Any moment now Former Governor of Virginia Mark Warner is planning on releasing a bulk e-mail announcing his future intentions of either running for the recently vacated Senate seat or for the Governor's seat in 2009.

This morning the New York Times Blog is reporting that he'll make a run at the Senate:

WASHINGTON — Former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia has told fellow Democrats that he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Senator John Warner, a Republican, who is retiring after serving five terms. An aide to Mark Warner said he would announce his decision on Thursday.

Mark Warner, 52, served as governor from 2002 to 2006 and had briefly contemplated running for the Democratic nomination for president. He had raised $9 million for a potential White House bid before deciding against it last October. Virginia law bars its governors from seeking re-election to a consecutive term.

Poll

How excited are you for Mark Warner's potential run?
102 votes Vote Results

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Good news from Virginia

by lickalamb

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 04:51:31 PM PDT

According to local radio, Mark Warner is to announce his intent to run for U.S. Senate from Virginia tomorrow Sept. 13, 2007 @9AM by email. With recent poll numbers in mind, moderate Republican Tom Davis(R-VA-11th Dist.) would be foolish to give up his safe U.S. House seat to go up against a popular former governor (80% approval rating when he left office in 2006). But I dare Davis to do it because we would have opportunity to capture both the House and the Senate seats since the 11th district is in recently-turned democratic territory of Northern Virginia.

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Reality check on all polls

by kos

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 08:44:00 AM PDT

This can be a cautionary tale or one of hope, depending on perspective.

Yesterday, I ran this poll, brimming with confidence:

Rasmussen. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)

Virginia Survey of 500 Likely VotersSeptember 5, 2007
Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mark Warner (D)
Jim Gilmore (R)
34%
Mark Warner (D)
54%

Virginia Senate

Democrat Warner Holds Large Lead Over Davis and Gilmore

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

If Democrat Mark Warner jumps into the Virginia Senate race for 2008, he will start out with a large lead over two Republicans expected to campaign for the job.

In a match-up of former Virginia Governors, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Warner leading Jim Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%. Warner also starts the season with a comfortable lead over Virginia Congressman Tom Davis. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Warner attracting 57% of the vote while Davis earns 30%.

In 2008, Virginia voters will select a new face to replace the retiring Republican Senator John Warner. The retiring Republican Senator is not related to the Democratic Governor who might seek to replace him.

A separate release shows that the Presidential race for Virginia’s Electoral Votes is much more competitive at this time.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Virginia voters say that Iraq will be a Very Important issue for determining their Congressional vote in 2008. Seventy-three percent (73%) Government Ethics and Corruption will be a Very Important issue while 71% say the same about the economy.

Iraq and Health Care are the top issues for Democratic voters in Virginia. Among Republicans, Iraq and Ethics are the top concerns. For Virginia voters not affiliated with either major party, the economy is the top issue followed by Iraq. Nationally, voters tend to prefer Democrats over Republicans on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

Governor Warner, who initially considered seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008, is viewed favorably by 68% of the state’s voters and unfavorably by 28%.

Governor Gilmore, who recently dropped his long-shot bid for the Republican Presidential nomination, is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 42%.

Davis, as a Congressman, is less well known. Forty-three percent (43%) offer a positive assessment of Davis, 35% have a negative opinion, and 22% don’t know enough to have an opinion one way or the other.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

A separate release shows that the Presidential race for Virginia’s Electoral Votes is much more competitive at this time.

Surveys were released today for the Presidential race in Minnesota, and Massachusetts along with the Senate race poll for Minnesota.

Rasmussen Reports has also released Election 2008 state polling results in Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, Colorado, New Hampshire, New York and Illinois.

In Primary Polls, Clinton leads all Democrats in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

The Republican Primary picture is more muddled. Romney leads in New Hampshire, Thompson leads in South Carolina, and Giuliani is on top in Florida.

See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54
Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57
An old friend reminded me of this poll:

Rasmussen. 12/7/05. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (no trend lines)
Allen (R) 57 Webb (D) 26

Allen had a 31-point lead less than a year before the 2006 elections. So we can never get too comfy if we're way ahead, and we shouldn't always despair if we're far behind.

In politics, things can change overnight.

Update: Obviously the dynamics of a Mark Warner matchup are different than those of the Webb/Allen race. The point wasn't that they're the same. The point was that in politics, things change and that while we can celebrate the good polls, those polls aren't everything. Campaigns still need to be run.

If the Draft Webb movement had taken this Rasmussen poll as gospel, we would've given up on Webb and ceded the race to Allen. We didn't. If the Allen people hadn't gotten cocky and overconfident after polls like this one, they wouldn't have been working on their presidential effort, telling people in Iowa that he wished he'd been born there and that he was running for president because he was bored of the Senate.

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VA-Sen: Run Mark, Run!
by kos
Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 09:41:07 AM PDT

Rasmussen Reports. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)
Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54

Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57

It's not even close.
Warner is expected to announce on Thursday whether he's running for this Senate seat, or whether he's waiting for the 2009 governor's race.

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Yes Virginia, There is a Virginia