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Thursday, September 13, 2007

YES VIRGINIA; THERE IS A VIRGINIA! MARK WARNER'S VIRGINIA.

BREAKING NEWS: VA-SEN: MARK WARNER IS IN!

http://www.markwarner2008.com/

VA-Sen: Warner (D) is in

by Skulnick
Thu Sep 13, 2007 at 05:59:57 AM PDT

Any moment now Former Governor of Virginia Mark Warner is planning on releasing a bulk e-mail announcing his future intentions of either running for the recently vacated Senate seat or for the Governor's seat in 2009.

This morning the New York Times Blog is reporting that he'll make a run at the Senate:

WASHINGTON — Former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia has told fellow Democrats that he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Senator John Warner, a Republican, who is retiring after serving five terms. An aide to Mark Warner said he would announce his decision on Thursday.

Mark Warner, 52, served as governor from 2002 to 2006 and had briefly contemplated running for the Democratic nomination for president. He had raised $9 million for a potential White House bid before deciding against it last October. Virginia law bars its governors from seeking re-election to a consecutive term.

Poll

How excited are you for Mark Warner's potential run?
102 votes Vote Results

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Good news from Virginia

by lickalamb

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 04:51:31 PM PDT

According to local radio, Mark Warner is to announce his intent to run for U.S. Senate from Virginia tomorrow Sept. 13, 2007 @9AM by email. With recent poll numbers in mind, moderate Republican Tom Davis(R-VA-11th Dist.) would be foolish to give up his safe U.S. House seat to go up against a popular former governor (80% approval rating when he left office in 2006). But I dare Davis to do it because we would have opportunity to capture both the House and the Senate seats since the 11th district is in recently-turned democratic territory of Northern Virginia.

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Reality check on all polls

by kos

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 08:44:00 AM PDT

This can be a cautionary tale or one of hope, depending on perspective.

Yesterday, I ran this poll, brimming with confidence:

Rasmussen. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)

Virginia Survey of 500 Likely VotersSeptember 5, 2007
Jim Gilmore (R) vs. Mark Warner (D)
Jim Gilmore (R)
34%
Mark Warner (D)
54%

Virginia Senate

Democrat Warner Holds Large Lead Over Davis and Gilmore

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

If Democrat Mark Warner jumps into the Virginia Senate race for 2008, he will start out with a large lead over two Republicans expected to campaign for the job.

In a match-up of former Virginia Governors, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Warner leading Jim Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%. Warner also starts the season with a comfortable lead over Virginia Congressman Tom Davis. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Warner attracting 57% of the vote while Davis earns 30%.

In 2008, Virginia voters will select a new face to replace the retiring Republican Senator John Warner. The retiring Republican Senator is not related to the Democratic Governor who might seek to replace him.

A separate release shows that the Presidential race for Virginia’s Electoral Votes is much more competitive at this time.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Virginia voters say that Iraq will be a Very Important issue for determining their Congressional vote in 2008. Seventy-three percent (73%) Government Ethics and Corruption will be a Very Important issue while 71% say the same about the economy.

Iraq and Health Care are the top issues for Democratic voters in Virginia. Among Republicans, Iraq and Ethics are the top concerns. For Virginia voters not affiliated with either major party, the economy is the top issue followed by Iraq. Nationally, voters tend to prefer Democrats over Republicans on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

Governor Warner, who initially considered seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008, is viewed favorably by 68% of the state’s voters and unfavorably by 28%.

Governor Gilmore, who recently dropped his long-shot bid for the Republican Presidential nomination, is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 42%.

Davis, as a Congressman, is less well known. Forty-three percent (43%) offer a positive assessment of Davis, 35% have a negative opinion, and 22% don’t know enough to have an opinion one way or the other.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

A separate release shows that the Presidential race for Virginia’s Electoral Votes is much more competitive at this time.

Surveys were released today for the Presidential race in Minnesota, and Massachusetts along with the Senate race poll for Minnesota.

Rasmussen Reports has also released Election 2008 state polling results in Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, Colorado, New Hampshire, New York and Illinois.

In Primary Polls, Clinton leads all Democrats in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

The Republican Primary picture is more muddled. Romney leads in New Hampshire, Thompson leads in South Carolina, and Giuliani is on top in Florida.

See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54
Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57
An old friend reminded me of this poll:

Rasmussen. 12/7/05. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (no trend lines)
Allen (R) 57 Webb (D) 26

Allen had a 31-point lead less than a year before the 2006 elections. So we can never get too comfy if we're way ahead, and we shouldn't always despair if we're far behind.

In politics, things can change overnight.

Update: Obviously the dynamics of a Mark Warner matchup are different than those of the Webb/Allen race. The point wasn't that they're the same. The point was that in politics, things change and that while we can celebrate the good polls, those polls aren't everything. Campaigns still need to be run.

If the Draft Webb movement had taken this Rasmussen poll as gospel, we would've given up on Webb and ceded the race to Allen. We didn't. If the Allen people hadn't gotten cocky and overconfident after polls like this one, they wouldn't have been working on their presidential effort, telling people in Iowa that he wished he'd been born there and that he was running for president because he was bored of the Senate.

Race tracker wiki: VA-Sen

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VA-Sen: Run Mark, Run!
by kos
Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 09:41:07 AM PDT

Rasmussen Reports. 9/5. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)
Gilmore (R) 34 Warner (D) 54

Davis (R) 30 Warner (D) 57

It's not even close.
Warner is expected to announce on Thursday whether he's running for this Senate seat, or whether he's waiting for the 2009 governor's race.

Race tracker wiki: VA-Sen

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Yes Virginia, There is a Virginia

Posted by at

Mark Warner For Senate Confirmed: 1st Report





WARNER FOR SENATE: THE SPECULATION IS OVER EMAIL CONFIRMATION RECEIVED HERE! YES!!!

From: "Gov. Mark R. Warner " <info@markwarner2008.com>
To: ed.dickau@shadowpolitics.us Date: Thu, 13 Sep 2007 14:27:48 +0000

Dear Friend,

Thirteen days ago, my friend, Senator John Warner announced his retirement from the US Senate. He has served Virginia and our country with distinction, and brought an independence and civility to office we need to see more of in public life.

After his announcement, I said that I would make my future plans public in the coming days. After a great deal of reflection, talking with my family and friends, I've reached my decision.

I hope you will watch my announcement video -- and join us in this effort.

With best wishes,

Mark Warner

Paid for by Friends of Mark Warner.
201 North Union Street Suite 350
Alexandria, VA 22314


The Associated PressWarner for Senate: Mark Not John - 12 hours ago
Mark Warner of Virginia has told fellow Democrats that he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Senator John Warner, a Republican, who is retiring ...
New York Times - 209 related articles »

By David M. Herszenhorn

WASHINGTON — Former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia has told fellow Democrats that he intends to run for the seat being vacated by Senator John Warner, a Republican, who is retiring after serving five terms. An aide to Mark Warner said he would announce his decision on Thursday.

The two Warners are not related.

Mark Warner, 52, served as governor from 2002 to 2006 and had briefly contemplated running for the Democratic nomination for president. He had raised $9 million for a potential White House bid before deciding against it last October. Virginia law bars its governors from seeking re-election to a consecutive term.

Early in his career, Mr. Warner served on the staff of Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut. He then went on to make millions in the telecommunications field, and his personal fortune is estimated at more than $200 million.


Virginia will be a key battleground in 2008 as Democrats seek to extend their majority in Congress. Two Republicans have also expressed interest in the Senate seat: Representative Thomas M. Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who himself mounted a presidential this year before dropping out in July.


Mark Warner for Senate 2008

by: The Grey Havens

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 00:56:09 AM EDT
It's no secret, but the whispers are rising to the level of a great roar. Governor Warner will rise for the Senate seat newly vacated by retiring Senator John Warner.

The Virginia Pilot reports:

Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is widely expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate on Thursday, pledging to bring a spirit of bipartisanship to Washington.

Warner, in around-the-clock meetings and phone calls with political advisers in recent weeks, has been weighing whether to run for the Senate seat being vacated next year by longtime Republican incumbent John Warner, or wait until 2009 and run again for governor.

One strategist who asked not to be identified said Warner has put out word to a few that he has decided on the Senate. Many others said Warner had indicated in conversations with them in recent days that he is leaning heavily toward the Senate.

Can you feel it!? That's the electricity of Mark Warner's presence pervading early into the 2007, 2008, and 2009 election cycles...

The Grey Havens :: Mark Warner for Senate 2008

Thursday is the day, but sources say this is nearly a done deal. Mark Warner will run for the US Senate 2008:

"I'd be surprised if he didn't run for the Senate," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, who said he spoke with Warner on Friday night.

One ally, who spoke with Warner on Monday, said the former governor put his chances of declaring for the Senate at "80-20."

His presence up ballot will raise all ships in 2008, helping Congressional Democrats and putting Virginia powerfully in play for the Presidential election.

Closer to home, Mark Warner's name and image, as the hallmark of Virginia Democrats, will only serve to reinforce the powerful gathering storm that is threatening to give Democrats control of the Virginia Senate, and potentially the House this year.

This is the starting gun for the Brigades of volunteers who helped elect Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in recent years. The wind is at our backs. Every electoral prize in 2007, 2008, and 2009 is within reach if we simply do what we can.

Virginia is the home of Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, and Mark Warner. There's never been a better time to be a fightin' Virginia Democrat!


Mark Warner for Senate 2008 18 comments
by: you @ soon
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I'll admit, victory means momentum (4.00 / 1)

If we can pull off another victory in Virginia, it means momentum. If we can somehow manage to miraculously win turn VA Blue by voting for a Dem President, then we would certainly have the momentum to carry us into 2009's race (as long as we don't have an little spat between Deeds and Moran supporters).

Though I wish Mark not John would run for Governor, I'll do everything I can to help him be elected Senator.


"Duty is the sublimest word in our language. Do your duty in all things. You cannot do more. You should never wish to do less." -Robert E. Lee

by: DanG @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 00:00:11 AM CDT
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Is it too late to be the first to endorse Mark Warner? (4.00 / 1)
If not...

I wholeheartedly endorse Mark Warner for US Senate.

God Bless the Great Commonwealth of Virginia and God Bless America!!!

by: The Grey Havens @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 00:04:21 AM CDT

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It's like a big, blue avalanche (0.00 / 0)

Kerrey, Warner, Shaheen....

Political HayMark Warner's Choice By Liz Mair Published 9/10/2007 12:08:11 AM

In the wake of Republican Sen. John Warner's retirement announcement just over a week ago, focus has shifted away from the Senate maverick to another outside-the-mold Warner of Virginia politics -- Democratic ex-Gov. Mark Warner.

Speculation has been rife for months that if Sen. Warner declined to run for re-election in 2008, the former Governor would step into the ring. However, over Labor Day weekend, Mr. Warner made clear that he is weighing at least two options: running for Senate (as anticipated), or running for Governor again (less so). A third option has also been mentioned: joining the 2008 Democratic presidential ticket in the vice-presidential slot.


Any and all of
these possibilities must be tempting to Mr. Warner, who left office in 2006 with a 72 percent approval rating, according to SurveyUSA. After all, he has made clear that he's interested in running for something big again, and soon, commenting to a crowd in Newport News over Labor Day weekend, "My hope and prayer is that sometime in the next few weeks I may be able to come back to y'all as a job applicant." But, the buffet of political choices nonetheless presents Mr. Warner with a conundrum.

On the one hand, Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is eager to sign Mr. Warner on as the Democrats' candidate for the 2008 Virginia Senate race. Over Labor Day weekend, on ABC's This Week, he said he hoped that Mr. Warner would run and praised him as "outstanding," and "just exemplary."


Mr. Warner would likely fare better in the race than would current Gov. Tim Kaine, who has also been mentioned as a potential candidate (Mr. Kaine's approval rating currently stands at a rather low 54 percent). Ditto that for Virginia Reps. Rick Boucher or Bobby Scott, whose names have also been thrown into the mix, but who are significantly less well-known across the Old Dominion. But while Mr. Schumer may be angling for Mr. Warner to step into the ring -- his ring, specifically -- a look at the ex-Governor's background suggests that spending six years in the U.S. Senate just may not be his style.


Prior to his election as Governor, Mr. Warner helped to found Nextel, and then venture capital firm Columbia Capital. That suggests a flair for the executive -- and that like his fellow former Virginia governor, ex-Sen. George Allen, the deliberative, stuffy Senate could end up boring him. For a man who seems to like running things, not debating and taking orders from his colleagues, the smart money is on him taking a serious look at running for Governor again.


Virginia law limits gubernatorial terms to one at a time. But, with Mr. Warner's political heir, Mr. Kaine, due to finish his term in January 2010, there is nothing that would prevent Mr. Warner from stepping into the ring again in 2009 to reclaim his old job. However, the question is, for a man who looks like he's itching to get back into elected office, can he wait that long? And what will he do in the meantime?
This consideration probably tips the scales towards a Senate run. However, with his name still in the mix as a preferred vice presidential candidate in 2008, Mr. Warner might just be able to have his cake and eat it, too.


With Sen. Hillary Clinton currently polling 16.8 percent ahead of her nearest rival, nationally, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average, and ahead by a noticeable margin in most early primary state polls, the current presumption is that she will be the Democratic nominee. The probability of that outcome will feature heavily in Mr. Warner's decision-making, with his name remaining at the top of the veep-nominee list.


Certainly, adding Mr. Warner to a presidential ticket would be a smart move for Mrs. Clinton. Yes, he did raise taxes on a bigger scale than ever before seen in Virginia, relying on disarray amongst Republicans to get the hike through.


But he also scored better than five of his fellow first-term governors, including one Republican, and eleven second-term governors, including six Republicans, on the CATO Institute's 2004 Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors (19 first-term, and 6 second-term, governors scored better than Mr. Warner). That makes him look more moderate than Mrs. Clinton, who despite all of her efforts at centrist positioning in the Senate, is still perceived as being of the far left by much of the electorate.


But would a Clinton-Warner team work? When Mr. Warner withdrew his name from presidential consideration last year, there was speculation in Democratic circles that Mrs. Clinton forced him out of the race. What is certain is that last year, Mrs. Clinton's assistants sought to smack Mr. Warner down after he commented that she "couldn't win" (without him on her ticket, he might just be proved correct).


In light of that apparent rivalry, the smart money has to be on Mr. Warner not banking on a vice-presidential nomination. And that, combined with his evident desire to get back into the political ring and quickly, suggests that a Senate candidacy on the part of the other Mr. Warner will be forthcoming.


Liz Mair is a political columnist, commentator, and consultant in Arlington, Virginia. She writes daily at
www.lizmair.com .

Mark Warner Intends to Seek Senate SeatThe Associated Press - 12 hours agoMark Warner intends to run for the Senate next year, Democratic officials said Wednesday, assuring his party a competitive race for a seat long in ...







CNN - CBS Newsall 209 news articles »

Mark Warner To Announce Senate RunThe Gate - National Journal, DC - 24 minutes agoMark Warner, a Democrat, will announce today that he will run for the Senate in 2008, a source close to the decision planning said yesterday. ...

Ex-Gov. Warner expected to announce Senate candidacyCharlottesville Daily Progress, VA - 2 hours agoJohn W. Warner, R-Alexandria, “the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats in a 2008 Senate race across the country.” “Mark Warner starts the contest as a ...Open process opens doors for nominees The Virginian-Pilotall 2 news articles »

Washington Post


Mark Warner Weighs His OptionsWashington Post, United States - Sep 9, 2007By Tim Craig RICHMOND -- When former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner abruptly aborted his exploratory campaign for president a year ago, he vowed he had "a ...

(Stations: Please substitute the following for V0032, slugged 17th ...KXMC, ND - 14 hours agoThe new version CORRECTS fourth item to say Mark Warner plans to run for Senate, sted has announced and add attribution. ...

VA-SEN: Warner Camp Polls CantorTown Hall, DC - 1 hour agoMark Warner’s people are worried enough about Eric Cantor that they’ve polled his name as a potential opponent. Mark Warner has seen public and some ...VA-SEN: Run Eric Run! Town Hallall 4 news articles »

Mark Warner's ChoiceAmerican Spectator - Sep 9, 2007Mark Warner. Speculation has been rife for months that if Sen. Warner declined to run for re-election in 2008, the former Governor would step into the ring. ...

A Bundle of NervesAmerican Spectator - 8 hours agoMark Warner will announce on Thursday that he is seeking the same Senate seat he sought back in 1996 when he lost to retiring Sen. John Warner. ...

Philadelphia Inquirer

JOHNNY HANSON / Houston ChroniclePhiladelphia Inquirer, PA - 5 hours agoMark Warner intends to run for the Senate next year, Democratic officials said yesterday, assuring his party a competitive race for a seat long in ...

Warner Announcement Expected SoonWSET, VA - Sep 10, 2007Charlottesville, VA - Former Virginia governor Mark Warner is just days away from declaring himself a major political candidate again. ...Warner Announcement Imminent WCAVall 2 news articles »



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